A nomogram to predict the probability of mortality after first-ever acute manifestations of cerebral small vessel disease

Abstract Background and purpose Symptomatic lacunar stroke (LS) and deep intracerebral hemorrhage (dICH) represent the acute manifestations of type 1 cerebral small vessel disease (cSVD). Recently, two studies showed that the risk factor profile of dICH differs from that associated with LS in subjects with biologically plausible cSVD; however, the prognostic predictors after acute manifestations are currently lacking. We aimed to develop a nomogram for individualized prediction of the mortality probability in a cohort of patients with a first-ever acute manifestation of biologically plausible cSVD. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of data collected from consecutive patients with acute symptomatic non-embolic LS or primary dICH. The outcome measure was 3-month mortality. Based on multivariate logistic model, the nomogram was generated. Results Of the 288 patients who entered into the study for biologically plausible cSVD, 131 (45%) experienced a LS and 157 (55%) a dICH. After multivariate logistic regression, 5 variables remained predictors of mortality to compose the nomogram: dICH (OR:11.36; p = 0.001), severe presentation (OR:8.08; p  Conclusions We developed the first nomogram for prediction of the mortality probability in a cohort of patients with a first-ever acute manifestation of biologically plausible cSVD.