When Promises Fail: A Theory of Temporal

Numerous studies have reported that suicide rates tend to be affected by temporal variables (month, day of the week, day of the month, holidays). Few authors have provided convincing explanations of these relations, and no one except Durkheim has suspected that they display similarities which indicate that they might have some causal origins in common. This article attempts to look at several temporal correlations as examples of the same underlying dynamics and to offer a theory which helps to organize a traditionally enigmatic body of research. -Suicide is most frequent in the spring months and least frequent during the winter. -A secondary peak occurs in the fall, but primarily among women. -Suicide peaks on Monday, then declines to a trough on the weekend. -The suicide rate is typically lower than normal on major holidays, but it tends to be higher than normal on New Year's Day. -Suicide is most common near the beginning of the month and least common near the end of the month. -It is not unusual for a despondent individual to commit suicide just when he/she had recently seemed to display a noticeable improvement in mood. Each of these generalizations has been reported by researchers on suicide, some of them many times. While all of these patterns call for additional empirical confirmation or specification, nothing is so badly needed as theory which would help to explain the existing data. In the literature on temporal variations in suicide, instead of systematic attempts