The Downs and Ups of the SNAP Caseload: What Matters?

Since the early 1990s, states have received unprecedented flexibility to determine Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) eligibility and program administration. We estimate that state SNAP policies accounted for 40 percent of the predicted caseload decline between 1993 and 2000 – primarily through the eligibility restrictions on noncitizens. More recent eligibility expansions and reductions in transaction costs explain 20 percent of the 2000-2011 caseload increase. The state unemployment rate plays a strong role in caseload changes over the study period, accounting for more than 60 percent of the predicted caseload decline between 1993 and 2000 and increase between 2007 and 2011. * The authors thank Brian Stacy for excellent research assistance. They also thank Craig Gundersen, Lucie Schmidt, Michele Ver Ploeg, and participants at the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management Conference, the National Tax Association Conference, the Annual Welfare Research and Evaluation Conference, and a USDA Economic Research Service seminar for helpful comments. This research was supported by a cooperative agreement through the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and may not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or the USDA.