AI and ML in the multi-domain operations era: vision and pitfalls

Warfighters and commanders face tremendous challenges as they work to understand and act within a competitive environment characterized by accelerating complexity. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) represent tremendous potential for decision makers operating across five domains within the Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) future operating concept, especially with falling costs and increasing access to disruptive technologies enabling our adversaries. Legitimate concerns surrounding military application of AI/ML to automation also demand careful consideration. How do we get to a place where warfighters have the right tools to overcome complexity and rapidly adapt within tight decision cycles against a technologically savvy adversary? Meaningful progress requires imagining where exactly we wish to go and which traps and pitfalls might lead us astray. In this paper we introduce a framework to facilitate discussion and understanding about what a desirable machine enhanced future army looks like, emphasizing the critical importance of vision in achieving it. Given an array of MDO challenges, we highlight how AI and ML capabilities can improve human control to minimize mistakes and tragedy. Lastly, in pursuit of avoiding potentially tragic missteps, we highlight critical pitfalls of applying AI/ML in military operations given inherent uncertainty of operational environments and complex systems.