Drop of HIV estimate for India to less than half

The recent UNAIDS/WHO AIDS epidemic update revises downwards the global estimate of people living with HIV/AIDS to 33.2 million (range 30.6-36.1 million). This is a reduction of 16% compared with the estimate in 2006 (39.5 million 34.7-47.1 million). The biggest reason for this decrease is the major revision for India to 2.5 million people (2-3.1 million) or about 0.4% of adults. That estimate is less than half the earlier one of 5.7 million people (range 3.4-9.4 million). What is the basis for this drop and what are the implications for further planning of HIV/AIDS control in India? The new HIV estimate for India is based on population data from the third National Family Health Survey of more than 102 000 adults (82% of eligible people) and includes upward adjustments for under-represented groups at high risk of HIV. The survey data provide the most reliable HIV estimate for India so far. These data corroborate the findings from our study last year in Guntur district in south India in which we showed that the official method used so far to estimate the HIV burden in India led to a 2.5 times higher estimate than population data adjusted for under-represented groups at high risk of HIV. (excerpt)