The mediating effect of air quality on the association between human mobility and COVID-19 infection in China

Abstract Background Previous studies have found that human mobility restrictions could not only prevent the spread of COVID-19, but also improve the air quality because of the reduction of industrial production, transportation and traffic. It is noteworthy that air quality is also closely related to the risk of COVID-19 infection. Therefore, we aimed to assess the mediating role of air quality on the association between human mobility and the infection caused by this novel coronavirus. Methods We collected daily confirmed cases, human mobility data, air quality data and meteorological variables in 120 cities from China between January 23, 2020 and February 29, 2020. We applied the generalized additive model to examine the association of human mobility index with COVID-19 confirmed cases, and to assess the mediating effects of air quality index and each pollutant. Results We observed a significant positive relationship between human mobility index and the daily counts of COVID-19 confirmed cases. A unit increase in human mobility index (lag0–14) was associated with a 6.45% increase in daily COVID-19 confirmed cases, and air quality index significantly mediated 19.47% of this association. We also observed a positive relationship between human mobility index and air quality index. In the pollutant level analyses, we found significant mediating effects of PM2.5, PM10, and NO2. Conclusions Our study suggests that limiting human movements could reduce COVID-19 cases by improving air quality besides decreasing social contact.