Probabilistic Risk Assessment of the Rice Cropping Schedule for Central Hokkaido, Japan

AbstractA framework for the probabilistic risk assessment of the rice (Oryza sativa L.) cropping schedule (PRARCS) is presented. The method accounts for interannual meteorological variation, as opposed to the traditional cultivation schedule planning method, which is based on the seasonal change in long-term average air temperature. PRARCS uses an arbitrary developmental index model to estimate the timing of the heading stage, which is required to assess the risks of cold or heat damage and productivity. All results of risk assessment and productivity are linked to transplanting date as the most important cultivation practice for irrigated rice paddies. The results of assessments using PRARCS at Iwamizawa, central Hokkaido, Japan, indicated that for the current climate the optimal transplanting period is the end of May, and this corresponds to the actual transplanting dates used and the increasing risks and decreasing productivity with earlier or later transplanting. Assessment using projected climatic da...