The readiness of industry for a transformative recovery from COVID 19

Many countries are committed to emerge from COVID 19 on a more sustainable environmental footing. Here we explore what such a structurally transformative recovery would mean for the manufacturing sector. We construct two indicators to assess the readiness of manufacturing in 14 countries to move toward zero-carbon products and processes post-COVID 19: the extent to which country-sectors have already started to convert to zero-carbon products and processes (measured by low-carbon innovation) and their ability to gain and maintain market share (measured by existing comparative advantages). Taken together the two indicators paint an intuitive picture of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats faced by different sectors, which can guide countries in their recovery strategies. We find that all countries have zero-carbon growth opportunities and comparative advantages in some sectors, but industrialised countries and the East Asian economies, especially South Korea, appear best positioned, thanks a push in low- carbon innovation that predates the pandemic.