Environmental conservation policy can bend the trend of future forest losses in the oriental Amazon

Scenarios of land use and land cover (LULC) are essential to orient public policies and improve future landscape, but scenarios of LULC at high resolution aiming to guide government actions are still scarce in the frontiers of deforestation in the tropics. This study aimed to explore the historical LULC changes (1985 to 2015) and anticipate how the implementation of the Brazilian New Forest Code could affect the LULC trends for 2050 in a region between Amazon and Cerrado biomes. We classified satellite images from the years 1986, 1990, 1993, 1999, 2004, 2010, and 2015 using a machine learning algorithm and environmental covariates. We projected two scenarios for 2050: scenario 1 representing the future trend based on the past LULC changes using a predictive model, and scenario 2 representing the full implementation of the Forest Code in the region from 2015 to 2050. We found that the forest cover decreased from 29.1 to 21.7% between 1986 and 2015, being converted mainly to pasture areas. In scenario 1, there are expected intense conversions of natural vegetation areas to pastures, resulting in 80% of the basin covered by pasture, 11.3% by forest and 5.1% by cerrado up to 2050. On the other hand, the implementation of Legal Reserves according to Forest Code in scenario 2 can restore the forest cover up to 29.5% by 2050. Although forest area is expected to increase in scenario 2, about 3.7 kha of cerrado still is expected to be converted into pastures. Therefore, the compliance and full adoption of the New Forest Code can help to promote forest protection in this region.