Alternative Future Growth Scenarios For Utah'sWasatch Front: Identifying Future ConflictsBetween Development And The Protection OfEnvironmental Quality And Public Health

Utah's Wasatch Front spans a narrow 20 by 130 km corridor between Ogden/Salt Lake City to the north, and Provo to the south. Bounded by the Great Salt Lake to the west and the Wasatch Mountains to the east, the region faces physical barriers in its ability to accommodate new growth. Further constraints to growth are likely to include water availability, regulatory restrictions to protect air quality, and a host of ecological concerns. Current forecasts predict that the region's population of 1.9 million will increase 70% by 2030 – a rapid rate of growth that threatens to undermine traditional land uses, ecosystem services, and the quality of life for many residents. This study used a GIS-based planning system with a 100m x 100m pixel resolution to identify areas critical to the protection of environmental and human health in a three-county region covering 25,900 km. These areas were then compared with sites exhibiting physical features favorable to development to identify areas of likely future conflict between conservation and development.