Ecological modeling as a scientific tool for assessing eutrophication and mitigation strategies for Belgian coastal waters

The role of model simulation in understanding system complexity and in decision-making is nowadays recognized. Models offer the ability to test conceptual understanding of how components of a given system are linked, and to simulate complex biogeochemical interactions in a quantifiable and repeatable manner. Modeling, however, is useful only if new insights subsequently lead to validation or rejection of hypotheses upon more detailed examination. Thus information extracted from model simulations is strongly linked to the chosen structure (trophic resolution) of the model and to the parameterization of the interactions between the components. When properly validated, models can be useful in both hindcast and forecast modes and used for testing environmental policy alternatives and their impact. Models are indeed the only tools which can be used to investigate future developments by simulating scenarios with different constraints.