Climate defined but not soil-restricted: the distribution of a Neotropical tree through space and time

Brosimum rubescens, a tree species with Neotropical distribution, can achieve local monodominance in Southern Amazonian forests. Understanding how and why this species varies across space and time is important because the monodominance of some species alters ecosystem complexity. Here we evaluated the fundamental ecological niche of B. rubescens by species distribution models (SDM), combining predictive environmental variables with occurrence points, and determined the temporal persistence and how the spatial distribution patterns of this species vary with different environmental predictive variables. To generate the SDMs, we incorporated predictive environmental variables as main components of climatic, hydric and edaphic variables. All algorithms showed higher performance in spatial predictions for hydric variables and for the combination of climatic, hydric and edaphic variables. We identified that the potential niches of B. rubescens seem to be defined by climatic fluctuations, with the edaphic conditions not limiting the presence of this species in the evaluated spatial scale. From the last glacial maximum to the present, this species seems to have increased its spatial amplitude; however, from the present to the future, predictions suggest that B. rubescens will experience a considerable loss of its range. Our findings showed independent and combined effects of different environmental variables, allowing us to identify which are limiting or facilitating the spatial distribution of B. rubescens. We corroborate the spatial persistence and geographical fidelity of the species’ distribution patterns over time.