The Development of the Preoperative Nomogram Predicting Major Perioperative Complications after Radical Cystectomy with Ileal Conduit or Orthotopic Neobladder

Radical cystectomy (RC) is the gold standard for managing muscle-invasive and high-risknon-muscleinvasive bladder cancer, but is accompanied by non-negligible operative risk. The aim of this study is to identify preoperative variables to predict major perioperative complications after RC and to develop a nomogram using the cohort from multiple institutions in Japan. We retrospectively reviewed 668 patients who underwent open RC with ileal conduit or neobladder at Hokkaido University hospital and 20 affiliated institutions between 1997 and 2010. Complications occurring within 90 days of surgery were graded using modified Clavien classification system. We defined modified Clavien grade 3 or more as major complications and performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Predictive accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). A total of 528 men and 140 women were included in this study. There were a total of 160/668 patients (24%) with major perioperative complications. A multivariate model identified gender (OR : 1. 63, p=0. 04), cardiovascular comorbidity (OR : 1.48, p=0.03) and simultaneous nephroureterectomy (OR : 2.81, p=0. 01) as independent predictors. Using these 3 variables, a nomogram was developed with the AUC of 0.58. Predictive performance of our nomogram showed only fair performance ; but at least, we identified male, cardiovascular comorbidity and simultaneous nephroureterectomy as independent predictors of perioperative major complications.