Effects of individual, community, and landscape drivers on the dynamics of a wildland forest epidemic.

The challenges posed by observing host-pathogen-environment interactions across large geographic extents and over meaningful time scales limit our ability to understand and manage wildland epidemics. We conducted a landscape-scale, longitudinal study designed to analyze the dynamics of sudden oak death (an emerging forest disease caused by Phytophthora ramorum) across hierarchical levels of ecological interactions, from individual hosts up to the community and across the broader landscape. From 2004-11, we annually assessed disease status of 732 coast live oak, 271 black oak and 122 canyon live oak trees in 202 plots across a 275 km2 landscape in central California. The number of infected oak stems steadily increased during the eight-year study period. A survival analysis modeling framework was used to examine which level of ecological heterogeneity best predicted infection risk of susceptible oak species, considering variability at the level of individuals (species identity, stem size), the community (ho...