Assessment of climate change impact on downy mildew appearance in Serbia using ECHAM5 climate model outputs

Climate change and variability is natural phenomena. The latest changes of Earth's climate significantly affect human ability to remain food production sustainable. All aspects and phases of plant production, including management of harmful organisms is affected by some aspects of CC. Expected climate changes will influence environmental conditions suitable for diseases, pests and wides appearance. Results obtained in this assessment study indicate that, meteorological conditions which can be expected in Serbia in 2030 and 2050 according to ECHAM climate model will significantly affect time of appearance and probability of attack of plasmopara viticola which is causal agent of downy mildew of grapevine. Most important impact supposes to lead to earlier appearance of disease in vulnerable regions. However number of period with meteorological conditions suitable for appearance of downy mildew of grapevine is expected to vary differently in different regions reducing vulnerability of one region and increasing of another.