A Monte Carlo simulation approach to the reliability modeling of the beam permit system of the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collder (RHIC) at BNL

The RHIC Beam Permit System (BPS) monitors the health of RHIC subsystems and takes active decisions regarding beam-abort and magnet power dump, upon a subsystem fault. The reliability of BPS directly impacts the RHIC downtime, and hence its availability. This work assesses the probability of BPS failures that could lead to substantial downtime. A fail-safe condition imparts downtime to restart the machine, while a failure to respond to an actual fault can cause potential machine damage and impose significant downtime. This paper illustrates a modular multistate reliability model of the BPS, with modules having exponential lifetime distributions. The model is based on the Competing Risks Theory with Crude Lifetimes, where multiple failure modes compete against each other to cause a final failure, and simultaneously influence each other. It is also dynamic in nature as the number of modules varies based on the fault trigger location. The model is implemented as a Monte Carlo simulation in Java, and analytically validated. The eRHIC BPS will be an extension of RHIC BPS. This analysis will facilitate building a knowledge base rendering intelligent decision support for eRHIC BPS design.