Potential geographical distribution and habitat shift of the genus Ammopiptanthus in China under current and future climate change based on the MaxEnt model

Abstract The genus Ammopiptanthus is endangered species in China, which includes Ammopiptanthus mongolicus and Ammopiptanthus nanus, they are mainly distributed in the arid and semi-arid areas of northwest China. They play a significant role in the ecosystems, and they are valuable herbal medicines. However, in recent years, global climate change and human interference have resulted in drastic decreases in the geographic distribution of the genus Ammopiptanthus species. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential geographical habitat range of the genus Ammopiptanthus in the future (2050 and 2070) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results showed that the area of suitable habitat for A. mongolicus will tend to increase under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Under the scenario with higher emissions (RCP8.5), the suitable habitat range of A. nanus will decrease. A. mongolicus and A. nanus will migrate to the western part of China in RCP8.5, whereas A. mongolicus and A. nanus will migrate to the east part of China in RCP4.5. The three factors mainly influencing the distributions of A. mongolicus and A. nanus were the precipitation of coldest quarter, temperature seasonality, and precipitation of wettest month. Human activities may decrease its distribution area. It is recommended to establish nature reserves to protect the habitat of the species, and our study provides data support for understanding the distribution of the genus Ammopiptanthus in China.