Beoordeling van de Uitvoeringsnotitie Emissieplafondsverzuring en grootschalige luchtverontreiniging 2003

The Dutch Cabinet has set down a national programme, drawn up in the framework of the European Directive on national emission ceilings (the NEC Directive), in an Implementation Memorandum, 'Make it or break it'. On request of the Cabinet, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) - RIVM took on the evaluation of the objectives and cost-effectiveness of this programme for. Conclusions and recommendations are reported here. A major conclusion is the strong probability that the Netherlands will not meet its international emission obligations for 3 out of 4 NEC compounds, SO2, NOx and NMVOCs. Many of the measures and options for additional measures are not concrete and lack sufficient policy instruments for implementation. The choice made to translate national ceilings into sector targets has not been accepted by any of the sectors. This increases the risks surrounding implementation because of the uncertainty in the results of the policy package. Furthermore, the passage of time may mean that some of the reductions needed cannot be realised, making a declaration of default a very real possibility. In the case of ammonia, current policies may be sufficient to meet the target, although there is still a chance that the emission ceiling will be exceeded. Additional measures proposed are expected to bring the ammonia emissions under the ceiling. It will be possible to update the policy programme in 2006. In the meantime, it still remains to be seen whether 'Make it or break it' has set out the right implementation course for realising the Dutch national emission ceilings.