Ten Years of Online Public Opinion in China: From Hot Topics to Trend Analysis

With the rapid development of new media, China’s media environment is currently going through dramatic change. Public opinion incidents have occurred with great frequency in the new media environment, becoming a subject of interest for the state, for society, and for academia. Thanks to the strong technical support given by the Shanghai Jiao Tong University, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory of Shanghai Jiao Tong University has been able to examine historical data from the in-house China Public Incidents Database and make use of Big Data mining as part of its study on the changes in public opinion in China between 2003 and 2012. The diachronic study is focused on influencing factors such as the characteristics of various public opinion incidents, types of media platforms, opinion intervention, information disclosure, the relationship between region and public opinion dissemination, the impact on public policy, the spread of rumors, and affecting factors of attention levels, etc. The aim of the study is to uncover trends so as to provide a reference and basis for the management of public opinion, policy-making, and scientific handling with regard to public opinion incidents. Statistical analysis was conducted on a sample of 5000 public opinion incidents between 2003 and 2012 which had garnered comparatively greater attention. With the analysis, we found that: (1) In the 10-year period 2003–2012, the number of public opinion incidents grew by the year, with “heat” levels of such incidents trending upwards albeit with some volatility; (2) The influence of new media is also growing by the day, leading to rapider dissemination of information pertaining to public opinion and opinion-making, while the advantages enjoyed by traditional media remain; (3) The time between incident exposure and subject intervention has become shorter, and effects are positive, meaning that intervention capabilities are strengthening; (4) The news release system is continually being improved, with a growing array of release methods used; (5) The impact of public opinion on public policy is becoming more significant, with journalists and opinion leaders playing a key role; (6) There are significant differences across regions in terms of the number of public opinion incidents occurring, the type of incidents occurring, the type of media through which incidents are first exposed, and management approaches, etc.; (7) There are several factors that influence the levels of attention paid to public opinion incidents, and the scope of attention is broader with we-media compared to news media.