Socioeconomic development and wood consumption.

To show the relationship between socioeconomic development and wood consumption for the investigation of future changes in wood demand in countries where socioeconomic development is expected, we analyzed panel data on per capita GDP, the human development index (HDI), and other factors in relation to per capita wood consumption for 33 OECD and 6 BRIICS countries. An increasing linear trend was found between per capita GDP and per capita consumption for sawn wood. However, the consumption declined over time when the same economic level was attained. In the case of plywood, reconstituted panels, and paper/paperboard, the results suggest that an environmental Kuznets curve, represented as an inverted-U curve, exists between per capita GDP and per capita consumption, confirming a tendency for consumption to reach saturation and then decline as economic development progresses. For wood fuel, an increasing linear trend was confirmed between economic level and per capita consumption, indicating the recent promotion of biofuel in developed countries. However, economic level alone might not be sufficient for explaining the demand for wood. The consumption of sawn wood, plywood, reconstituted panels, and paper/paperboard declined over time for a given HDI level. Rising population density and urbanization can contribute to a decrease in per capita wood consumption, whereas the larger the country’s forest area, the greater per capita wood consumption. In particular, there is an increasing tendency to use the latest forms of wood fuel under sustainable forest management.