Evaluation of mission effectiveness solutions by analytic hierarchy process

In 2015, the First Principles Review (FPR) of Australian Defence recommended an increase in the validity and transparency of estimates of the whole of life cost and capability throughout the Defence acquisition process. FPR also recommended that the value proposition for new capability acquisitions be made explicit rather than being left implicit, and greater contestability was recommended, especially at the earliest stages where concepts and systems architectures are compared. Military cost-benefit assessment (CBA) can be used to provide these defensible views, but requires a high degree of systems analysis expertise and access to robust and reliable cost and capability data. This project investigates applicable methods and practices for conceptual systems analysis in the new Defence Capability Life Cycle design process. This paper explores one of the possible methods to estimate the benefit side of the cost-benefit ratio known as Analytical Hierarchy Process. A nominal example of a Defence mission was used to generate Measures of Effectiveness and Performance through expert elicitation, although no data from experts in that mission was obtained. Issues of data quality and sensitivity to judgment errors were considered.