A CO2-adó bevezetésének várható hatása Magyarországon

A kutatokat egyre inkabb foglalkoztatja az a kerdes, hogy a kornyezetpolitika eszkozei (pl. kornyezeti adok) hogyan alkalmazhatok a magyar gazdasag valsaghelyzetenek feloldasara. Kornyezetgazdaszok szerint a zold gazdasag kepes hozzajarulni a gazdasag rovid tavu stabilizalasahoz. A cikk bemutatja, hogy egy esetleges CO2-ado bevezetese reven, 2008–2009. evi adatokra tamaszkodva, mennyi tobbletbevetelhez juthatna a koltsegvetes, valamint vizsgalja a tobbletbevetel felhasznalasi lehetősegeit. Modellszamitasok eredmenyei kimutatjak, hogy a hazai uveghazhatasu gazkibocsatas merteke utan bevezetett 10 EUR/t mertekű CO2-adobol szarmazo bevetel valamivel tobb mint 2% nagysagrendű szemelyi jovedelemadokulcs-csokkentest vagy kozel 3% tarsadalombiztositasi jarulekkulcs-csokkentest tenne lehetőve, illetve nagysagrendileg 200 Mrd forint osszeg allna rendelkezesre energiaracionalizalo programok tamogatasara. Megallapithato, hogy a hazai csokkenő mertekű CO2-kibocsatas – a vizsgalat soran alkalmazott adomertek mellett – szűk adoalapot jelent markans hatas eleresehez. Az adoatvaltas hatasa csokkenő CO2-kibocsatas es novekvő SZJA- es TB-bevetelek eseten egyre kevesbe jelentős. Az adoreform hatasanak erősseget az ado merteke es az arfolyamvaltozas jelentősen befolyasolja. Az elvegzett vizsgalatokbol nem vonhato le egyertelműen az a kovetkeztetes, hogy a hazai adorendszer megvaltoztatasaval, a tarsadalmi terhek atcsoportositasaval a kornyezeti allapot javulasan tul gazdasagi novekedesben es a foglalkoztatottsag novekedeseben szamottevő javulas kovetkezne be. ------------------------------------------- Researchers have become more and more interested in the question of how the tools of environment policy (e.g. environmental taxes) could be applied to resolve the crisis situation of the Hungarian economy. Environment managers believe that the green economy is promoting the short term stabilisation of the economy. This article demonstrates the amount of additional revenues that would be available to the state budget in the case of the introduction of a CO2 tax and also examines the possible ways in which that additional revenue could be utilised. The results of the modelling calculations show that a more than 2% reduction in the personal income tax rate or a nearly 3% reduction in the social security contribution rate could be realised from the revenues from a 10 EUR/t CO2 tax levied on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, approximately 200 billion HUF could be utilised for the support of energy saving projects. The decreasing level of domestic CO2 emissions – presuming the given tax rate – would have only a limited effect on the government budget. The effect of the change in the tax system is less intensive in the case of decreasing CO2 emissions and increasing income tax and social security contribution revenues. The intensity of the effect of the tax reform is significantly infl uenced by the rate of the tax and the movement of the currency exchange rates. However, based on the research described in this article we cannot clearly conclude that − apart from an improvement in the state of the environment − a change in the domestic tax system and a redistribution of taxes would result in economic development and an increase in employment.