APPLIED RELIABILITY AND MARKOV PROCESS APPROACH TO MODELLING PAVEMENT DETERIORATION

This paper describes the use of non-homogeneous Markov transition process to predict pavement deterioration over time. Each element of the transition probability matrices is calculated through Monte Carlo simulation. The new technique is based on the reliability concept which runs through the process of pavement management at network level. The paper presents the equations developed to generate the transition probability matrix. The authors feel that the technique could be used to predict pavement condition state, determine needs and priorities and optimise pavement rehabilitation and maintenance alternatives.