Plume Dispersion in Low-Wind-Speed Conditions During Project Sagebrush Phase 2, with Emphasis on Concentration Variability

Eight short-range, open-terrain SF6 tracer tests in low wind speeds were conducted during Phase 2 of Project Sagebrush using continuous releases. Four tests were made during very unstable conditions in July and August 2016, and four during very stable conditions in October 2016. All tests featured 10-min averaging and 1-Hz sampling of tracer concentrations together with an extensive suite of meteorological measurements. We find that the uncertainty in well-mixed daytime measurements of tracer concentrations, using the absolute value of the relative percentage difference in collocated duplicate samplers, approaches a downwind limit of about 7–8%. Concentration variability in collocated sampling, due to stochastic factors and independent of measurement uncertainty, increases the total observational uncertainty closer to the source from about 20% (daytime) to 40% (very stable conditions). Longer averaging periods moderately reduce the concentration variability. The data indicate that the large increase in concentration variability is linked with the suppression of turbulent mixing, small eddy length scales, and meandering in very stable conditions. These results should be considered when comparing observations with model predictions in evaluations.