Modelling Vulnerability to Severe Weather

We present a spatial analysis of weather related fire brigade operations in Berlin. By comparing operation occurrences to insured losses for a set of severe weather events we demonstrate the representativeness and usefulness of such data in the analysis of weather impacts on local scales. We investigate factors influencing the local rate of operation occurrence. While depending on multiple factors – which are often not available – we focus on publicly available quantities. These include 10 topographic features, land use information based on satellite data and information on urban structure based on data from the open street map project. After identifying suitable predictors such as housing density or local density of the road network we set-up a statistical model to be able to predict local operation densities. Such model can be used to determine potential hotspots for weather impacts even in areas or cities where no systematic records are available and can thus serve as a basis for a broad range of tools or applications in emergency management and planning.