A Military Assessment of the Middle East, 1991-96

Abstract : The author attempts to assess the military balance of power in the Middle East after the Persian Gulf War and to explore techniques for incorporating dynamic factors in his analysis. His objective is to create an understanding of the military balance and trends in the Middle East that will influence security issues several years into the future through inclusion of intangible factors not often considered in the analysis of regional military balances. This study in the region is based upon extensive interviews with Middle Eastern political and military leaders, defense intellectuals, and U.S. embassy personnel. In addition, the author uses a methodology for objective measurement and comparison of the air and ground combat force potential of the principal states, and projects their future power through quantification of expected arms acquisitions.