Probabilistic analysis of payback period for AC–DC transmission and distribution asset expansion projects

In this study, a new concept of statistical distribution of payback period is calculated for AC–DC transmission and distribution asset expansion projects. For calculation of the payback period, uncertainty is considered with cost and benefit. The Gaussian distribution is considered for correlated input cost and benefit variates. For more examination point of view, the distribution of the payback period is calculated with different correlation coefficients between cost and benefit. The main advantage of this study is to draw the probability distribution function of the payback period in terms of cost and benefit because most of the industrialist are often interested in cost and benefit analysis of AC–DC transmission and distribution asset expansion projects. An example is considered for evaluation of the proposed model.