Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for early HER2-positive and lymph node-negative breast cancer.

Background Dual-targeted therapy is currently the standard adjuvant treatment for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive (HER2+) and lymph node-positive (LN+) breast cancer. However, the optimal therapeutic strategy for patients with HER2+ and lymph node-negative (LN-) breast cancer remains unclear. This population-based study aimed to explore the factors associated with survival in patients with HER2+ and LN- breast cancer, and develop a survival-predicting nomogram in the era of trastuzumab-based single-targeted therapy. Methods We collected the clinicopathological information of HER2+ and LN- breast cancer patients who underwent chemotherapy and surgery from The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2010-2016, the Trastuzumab-based single-targeted therapy era). We subsequently explored the risk factors for breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) and overall survival (OS) using a Cox proportional hazards regression model, aiming to identify subgroups with worse prognosis, which would indicate potential demand for dual-targeted therapy. Three- and 5-year survival probability-predictive nomograms were established and subjected to bootstrap internal validation. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were applied to evaluate the performance of the model. Results After data cleansing, a total of 13,755 patients were included in the current analysis. Using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression, higher clinical T stage, hormone receptors-negative (HR-), and partial mastectomy without radiotherapy were identified as independent risk factors for BCSS and OS in patients with HER2+ and LN- breast cancer. Nomograms for 3- and 5-year BCSS and OS incorporating the selected prognostic factors were established. Calibration curves verified good consistency between the actual and nomogram-predicted survival probability. The C-index values of the BCSS and OS predictions and 95% confidence interval (CI) were 0.773 (0.740-0.806) and 0.764 (0.737-0.791), respectively. Conclusions Higher clinical T stage, HR-, and partial mastectomy without radiotherapy predicted worse prognosis in patients with HER2+ and LN- breast cancer. In clinical practice, patients can be recommended for single-targeted or dual-targeted therapy according to the individualized factors.