Kidney Structural Features from Living Donors Predict Graft Failure in the Recipient

BACKGROUND: Nephrosclerosis, nephron size, and nephron number vary among kidneys transplanted from living donors. However, whether these structural features predict kidney transplant recipient outcomes is unclear. METHODS: Our study used computed tomography (CT) and implantation biopsy to investigate donated kidney features as predictors of death-censored graft failure at three transplant centers participating in the Aging Kidney Anatomy study. We used global glomerulosclerosis, interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy, artery luminal stenosis, and arteriolar hyalinosis to measure nephrosclerosis; mean glomerular volume, cortex volume per glomerulus, and mean cross-sectional tubular area to measure nephron size; and calculations from CT cortical volume and glomerular density on biopsy to assess nephron number. We also determined the death-censored risk of graft failure with each structural feature after adjusting for the predictive clinical characteristics of donor and recipient. RESULTS: The analysis involved 2293 donor-recipient pairs. Mean recipient follow-up was 6.3 years, during which 287 death-censored graft failures and 424 deaths occurred. Factors that predicted death-censored graft failure independent of both donor and recipient clinical characteristics included interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy, larger cortical nephron size (but not nephron number), and smaller medullary volume. In a subset with 12 biopsy section slides, arteriolar hyalinosis also predicted death-censored graft failure. CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical nephrosclerosis, larger cortical nephron size, and smaller medullary volume in healthy donors modestly predict death-censored graft failure in the recipient, independent of donor or recipient clinical characteristics. These findings provide insights into a graft's "intrinsic quality" at the time of donation, and further support the use of intraoperative biopsies to identify kidney grafts that are at higher risk for failure.