Прогностическая модель для определения вероятности развития врожденной пневмонии у недоношенных новорожденных с низкой массой тела

The aim of the study was to create a prognostic model for determining the probability of developing congenital pneumonia in preterm infants with low body weight. 108 preterm infants with low body weight who were in the department of anesthesiology and resuscitation (with wards for newborns) and the pediatric department for preterm infants were examined. A comparative analysis of 214 life history data, outcomes of previous pregnancies, complications of present pregnancy in mothers, clinical and laboratory methods of study in newborns in the first three days of life was carried out. Later, the most important factors associated with the development of congenital pneumonia in premature infants with low body weight were identified: from the obstetric and gynecological history of the mother’s life – undeveloped pregnancy (RR = 13.46 (10.11‒17.91)) and spontaneous miscarriage (RR = 3.79 (2.69‒5.35)); the complications of this pregnancy, chronic fetoplacental insufficiency (RR = 3.47 (2.48‒4.87)); the results of histological placenta examination – the changes in the inflammatory placenta (RR = 11.98 (8.84‒16.23)); according to the clinical data of the infant in the first three days of life – the presence of severe respiratory failure (RR = 21.25 (15.69‒28.77)). Using the prognostic model, threshold values were calculated: for non-developing pregnancy – 0.727, spontaneous miscarriage – 0.445, chronic fetoplacental insufficiency – 0.418, changes in the inflammatory placenta – 0.688, severe respiratory failure – 0.690, which, with threshold values of ≥0.45, allows us to identify a high-risk group for the development of congenital pneumonia among premature infants with low body weight.