Research on a numerical model for predicting three types of underlying surface temperature and ice

By using underlying surface energy balance method,considering the balance among solar short-wave radiation,atmospheric and ground long-wave radiations,latent heat fluxes and sensible heat fluxes,a forecasting model for three kinds of underlying surface temperature is established,in which the parameterizations of absorption and scattering of vapor,aerosols,dusts and clouds are also adopted.Based on the observations of three different underlying(including soil,concrete and asphalt) surface temperature and the automatically collected meteorological sensor measurements during January and February of 2009 winter in Enshi and Jinsha,Hubei province,the underlying surface temperature forecasting model is validated.The results show that all the predictions of the three kinds of underlying surface temperature at the two stations are well correlated with the observations more than 0.95,and the standard deviations are smaller than 2,and the frequencies of prediction errors between -3 and 3℃are so high that respectively reach up to 95.20%,96.41%,93.57%,and 91.19%,94.16%,88.18%,which indicate the model has a good performance in the forecasts.Besides,the good predictions in three different weather conditions,especially when the underlying surface temperature is below 0℃,prove that it can be quite useful in the prediction of slippery road in winter.