Machine Learned Cellular Phenotypes Predict Outcome in Ischemic Cardiomyopathy.

RATIONALE Susceptibility to ventricular arrhythmias (VT/VF) is difficult to predict in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy either by clinical tools or by attempting to translate cellular mechanisms to the bedside. OBJECTIVE To develop computational phenotypes of patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy, by training then interpreting machine learning (ML) of ventricular monophasic action potentials (MAPs) to reveal phenotypes that predict long-term outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS We recorded 5706 ventricular MAPs in 42 patients with coronary disease (CAD) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) {less than or equal to}40% during steady-state pacing. Patients were randomly allocated to independent training and testing cohorts in a 70:30 ratio, repeated K=10 fold. Support vector machines (SVM) and convolutional neural networks (CNN) were trained to 2 endpoints: (i) sustained VT/VF or (ii) mortality at 3 years. SVM provided superior classification. For patient-level predictions, we computed personalized MAP scores as the proportion of MAP beats predicting each endpoint. Patient-level predictions in independent test cohorts yielded c-statistics of 0.90 for sustained VT/VF (95% CI: 0.76-1.00) and 0.91 for mortality (95% CI: 0.83-1.00) and were the most significant multivariate predictors. Interpreting trained SVM revealed MAP morphologies that, using in silico modeling, revealed higher L-type calcium current or sodium calcium exchanger as predominant phenotypes for VT/VF. CONCLUSIONS Machine learning of action potential recordings in patients revealed novel phenotypes for long-term outcomes in ischemic cardiomyopathy. Such computational phenotypes provide an approach which may reveal cellular mechanisms for clinical outcomes and could be applied to other conditions.