Patient Health Questionnaire-9 scores do not accurately estimate depression prevalence: individual participant data meta-analysis.

Abstract Objective Depression symptom questionnaires are not for diagnostic classification. Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) scores ≥ 10 are nonetheless often used to estimate depression prevalence. We compared PHQ-9 ≥ 10 prevalence to Structured Clinical Interview for DSM (SCID) major depression prevalence and assessed whether an alternative PHQ-9 cutoff could more accurately estimate prevalence. Study design and setting Individual participant data meta-analysis of datasets comparing PHQ-9 scores to SCID major depression status. Results 9,242 participants (1,389 SCID major depression cases) from 44 primary studies were included. Pooled PHQ-9 ≥ 10 prevalence was 24.6% (95% CI: 20.8%, 28.9%); pooled SCID major depression prevalence was 12.1% (95% CI: 9.6%, 15.2%); pooled difference was 11.9% (95% CI: 9.3%, 14.6%). Mean study-level PHQ-9 ≥ 10 to SCID-based prevalence ratio was 2.5 times. PHQ-9 ≥ 14 and the PHQ-9 diagnostic algorithm provided prevalence closest to SCID major depression prevalence, but study-level prevalence differed from SCID-based prevalence by an average absolute difference of 4.8% for PHQ-9 ≥ 14 (95% prediction interval: -13.6%, 14.5%) and 5.6 % for the PHQ-9 diagnostic algorithm (95% prediction interval: -16.4%, 15.0%). Conclusion PHQ-9 ≥ 10 substantially overestimates depression prevalence. There is too much heterogeneity to correct statistically in individual studies.