A tool to investigate potential climate change effects on the efficiency of urban drainage systems

A simplified semi-probabilistic approach is proposed in this paper as a tool to investigate the potential effects of climate change on the efficiency of urban drainage systems. This approach is suggested instead of Italian traditional design procedures which rely on a very simple conceptual representation of the rainfall process and a simple rainfall-runoff (R-R) model. Since the process is descr ibed through the definition of three random variables and their probability distribution, the main advantage is the possibility of changing one, two or more characteristics of the rainfall and R-R model at a time. The semi-probabilistic approach is finally adopted in order to assess the potential effects of climate change on some case studies, as well as how these effects are expected to show up in the management of the considered urban drainage system.