Current and future potential distribution and identification of suitable areas for the conservation of Cedrela odorata L. in the Yucatan Peninsula
2020
Introduction: Red cedar (Cedrela odorata L.) is appreciated for its wood, a situation that has caused poor
forest management and, therefore, a decrease in its areas of distribution.
Objective: To delimit the current and future potential distribution of C. odorata and to identify suitable
seed-producing areas for the conservation of the species in the Yucatan Peninsula.
Materials and methods: Records of the presence of C. odorata were obtained from the Global Biodiversity
Information Facility (GBIF), the National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS in Spanish) and the book “Arboles
tropicales de Mexico”. The modeling was done in MaxEnt using current environmental variables and future
(2030) climate change scenarios at 1 km2 spatial resolution. Seventy-five percent of the records were used
to train the models and 25 percent to validate them. The variables with the greatest contribution were
determined by the jackknife test.
Results and discussion: The estimated current potential distribution of C. odorata was 404917 ha. Climate
change simulations predict a reduction (31 to 44.8 %) of the suitable habitat, where the natural protected
areas (ANPs) of Calakmul, Los Petenes and Ria Celestun would serve as climate refuges, conserving about
76472 ha. The important variables in the distribution were: vegetation (34.7 %), precipitation of the wettest
month (14.6 %), edaphology (8.8 %), average temperature of the coldest quarter (8.6 %) and slope (7 %).
Conclusion: The models allowed the identification of suitable areas with habitat quality of C. odorata. In
view of the threats of climate change, the distribution of C. odorata in ANPs would help conservation and
restoration programs in situ.
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