Radioecological assessments of the Iodine working group of IAEA’s EMRAS programme: Presentation of input data and analysis of results of the prague scenario

In 2003 IAEA launched the EMRAS Programme aiming at evaluating the predictive power of radiological models. The programme continued work of previous international radioecological modelling programmes and comprised several working groups focusing on different aspects of environmental modelling. The Iodine Working Group reassessed the impact of the release of 131 I during the Chernobyl accident with the aim of comparing model predictions with environmental data and inter-comparing the model predictions. Measurement data and detailed geographic and demographic descriptions were available for three regions: Plavsk, Warsaw and Prague. As for the Prague Scenario, milk supply regions of three big dairies were chosen for the model validation. Apart from geographic, demographic and agricultural descriptions (e.g. gathering regions of the dairies, feeding regime), the modellers were provided with information on the weather conditions and measurement data of iodine contamination. The most important peculiarities of Prague Scenario were keeping milk cattle in sheds and a special feeding regime during May 1986. The modellers were asked to assess the 131 I content in the thyroid of the local population and the resulting dose. The assessments were compared with measurement data. The results of these model calculations and their comparison with experimental data are presented.