MODELLING AND FORECASTING VEHICLE REGISTRATION SYSTEM: AN ARMA APPROACH

The role of transportation in the promotion of national unity and socio- economic integration in Nigeria cannot be overemphasized. Transport stimulates a sense of oneness multi understanding in the cultural diversification of the most populous nation in the sub Sahara of African Continent. it is therefore of interest to study using the Autoregressive Moving Average, the transportation system in Nigeria using Lagos State (being the commercial centre) and also maintains a robust data base through the AUTOREG System as a case study by modeling and forecasting the Vehicle registration system in terms of types and ownership. The result of the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) approach indicated that there is tendency for an increase in the registration of Vehicles in the future. It is therefore suggested that to accommodate an increase in the number of Vehicles registration, a robust Vehicle database should be designed across the country for security, research and adequate planning; and Nigerian government at all levels should strive to provide adequate and reliable road network system to meet this emerging developmental activities among others.