What is stopping India’s rapid decarbonisation? Examining social factors, speed, and institutions in Odisha

Abstract To avoid the worst effects of climate change, the world needs to phase out fossil fuel use rapidly and at scale. While there is increasing attention to the temporal dynamics shaping country-specific transition challenges, sub-national level assessments of transition implications, especially in the Global South remain critically under-studied. This is an area of increasing significance due to the highly localised nature of the complex social institutional context shaping global energy futures. India presents a particularly challenging setting for a smooth energy transition. It has one of the world’s most ambitious renewable energy development plans. At the same time, its reliance on coal – for reliable and affordable energy, to support its economically upward movement – is expected to continue for several decades. This paper analyses potential bottlenecks to India’s decarbonisation plans drawing on a case study in the eastern state of Odisha. It considers coal's deep ties with local and regional economic, industrial, political, and social institutions, that have caused India's sub-national political economies to be deeply complex and multi-dimensional. The paper highlights significant bottlenecks that may threaten India’s efforts towards rapid decarbonisation, and presents potential pathways forward.