Prediabetes is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease following renal transplantation

Prediabetes and post-transplant diabetes mellitus affect about 20-30% of renal transplant patients. The latter is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. However, no clear evidence linking prediabetes and cardiovascular disease is available. To study this we analyzed the impact of prediabetes on cardiovascular disease in 603 renal transplant patients followed with repeated oral glucose tests for up to five years and a long term survival evaluation. Prediabetes and post-transplant diabetes mellitus were defined at 12 months after transplantation to avoid their high reversibility rate before this period. 73 cardiovascular events were observed. The incidence of events was significantly higher in patients with either prediabetes, (17%; 0.023 person/year) or post-transplant diabetes mellitus (20%; 0.028 person/year) than in normal individuals, (7%; 0.0095 person/year). The incidence of events was comparable between prediabetes and post-transplant diabetes mellitus. Prediabetes at 12 months was a risk factor for cardiovascular events in univariate and multivariate Cox survival analyses (hazard ratio 2.24, 95% confidence interval 1.11-4.52). Prediabetes at three months and hemoglobin A1c at 12 months were not significantly associated with cardiovascular disease. Thus, prediabetes is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease in renal transplantation, a population at high risk for cardiovascular events. Since prediabetes is potentially a reversible condition, there is an opportunity to prevent cardiovascular disease in this population.