Preliminary Study on Epidemic Rule of Tobacco Potato Virus Y

Based on the weather data from 1996 to 2002,the correlation equation between disease index of potato virus Y(PVY) and the temperature and rainfall was established.The epidemic rule of PVY was tested for fitting with several models,and Gompertz model fitted best for epidemic process in a short term.A model of the relationship between epidemic rate and the number of flying aphids was also created.According to results of field investigation,a temporal and spatial dynamic model simulating disease spreading within a short range was deduced preliminarily.