The mother of all effects? stability and change in Greens party identification in Australia

ABSTRACTThe Australian Greens only formed as a national party in 1992. Here, some of the first young Australians able to inherit Greens party identity are examined. Analysis of youth cohort data from the state of Queensland, spanning 5 years (n = 2160; aged 17–22), shows that parental political affiliation (especially maternal affiliation) strongly influences Greens party identification as it does for the major parties. However, Greens are less likely than major party identifiers to exhibit stable party allegiances over time. Defections between Greens and Labor are also far more likely than between these parties and conservative parties (Liberals or Nationals). The comparatively recent formation of the Australian Greens accounts for the relative instability of Greens identity over time. Nevertheless, inter-generational transmission of Greens identity should translate into a relatively stable electoral base for the Greens, helping ensure they remain an influential presence in Australian federal politics.