Variability of factors driving spatial and temporal dispersion in river plume and Chattonella antiqua bloom in the Yatsushiro Sea, Japan.

Abstract The dynamics of river plume in relation to harmful blooms of the raphidophycean flagellate, Chattonella antiqua in summer 2008–2010 in the Yatsushiro Sea, Japan were studied using a hydrodynamic model and monitoring data. In the southern area, the bloom formed in the waters stratified by a halocline caused by the southward expansion of riverine water from the Kuma River after the bloom initially forming in the northern area. The timing of the southward riverine water advection can be explained by the balance between the wind stress term and the pressure gradient term calculated from the horizontal density difference between the northern and southern areas. The wind stress and pressure gradient terms were evaluated using the sea surface temperature, salinity, wind speed and direction at two stations. Real time monitoring or continuous observations in these areas will enable nowcasts of bloom expansion when a bloom develops in the northern area.