A framework for quantifying deviations from dynamic equilibrium theory

Community assembly is governed by colonization and extinction processes, and the simplest model describing it is Dynamic Equilibrium (DE) theory, which assumes that communities are shaped solely by stochastic colonization and extinction events. Despite its potential to serve as a null model for community dynamics, there is currently no accepted methodology for measuring deviations from the theory and testing it. Here we propose a novel and easily applicable methodology for quantifying deviations from the predictions and assumptions of DE by comparing observed community time-series to a randomization-based null model. We show that this methodology has good statistical properties on simulated data, and it can detect deviations from both the assumptions and predictions of DE in the classical Florida Keys experiment. We discuss alternative methods and present guidelines for practical use of the methodology, hoping it will enhance the applicability of DE as a reference for studying changes in ecological communities.