Observed and expected changes in extreme precipitation frequency in Russia in the 20th-21st centuries

Variations of the frequency of extreme daily precipitation events in winter and summer in the Russian Federation were studied for the 1961-2013 period using meteorological stations data. Future changes were estimated using data of the global climate models from CMIP5 model ensemble. In winter, there is a slight increase in the extreme precipitation frequency throughout Russia except for the Far East. By the end of the twenty-first century, models predict an overall strengthening of this trend. In summer, current changes are less significant and characterized by strong spatial heterogeneity. According to the CMIP5 models, the frequency of extreme precipitation will decrease in western and southern parts of Russia by the end of the 21st century and will increase in the northern and eastern regions.