The Valuation of Temperature Derivatives: The Case for Taiwan

This research focuses on the temperature risk and attempts to investigate which distribution is most appropriate for capturing the Taiwan's temperature dynamics. We adopt the Campbell and Diebold (2005) model to describe the temperature characteristics and examine a variety of distributions. We find that the standard Gumbel distribution provides the best fit for both in-sample and out-of-sample performance. Further, we extend Cao and Wei's (2004) approach to obtain the valuation framework for HDD and CDD contracts. Finally, we observe that the effects of different distributions on the value of the temperature derivatives are very significant.