Recent and future trends in general fertility in Venezuela

: Data from the 1977 Venezuela Fertility survey were used to assess recent trends in fertility and to attempt an understanding of future fertility based on observed trends. Between 1951-61, the total fertility rate increased from 5.96 to 6.61. In the 1960s, the fertility of women aged 15-30 years declined somewhat and the use of contraception and sterilization became more widespread, so that by 1971 the total fertility rate fell to 5.58. It is possible that the 1977 fertility survey slightly underrepresented women in the Caracas area, which would tend to overestimate fertility at the national level. The small sample size of 4361 women aged 15-44 involved considerable fluctuations in fertility rates from year to year. The risk of errors resulting from the method of retrospective reporting of live births appeared to be small since the recall period was relatively short. A series of quinquennial rates for women aged 15-39 was constructed for each age group from 1968-77. Fertility rates estimated for 1971 and 1976 respectively from the Venezuela Fertility Survey results using a moving average for 3 years were 120.7 and 105.1 for women 15-19, 259.0 and 225.1 for women 20-24, 255.0 and 213.1 for women 25-29, 214.3 and 167.7 for women 30-34, and 150.0 and 103.6 for women 35-39. The results were quite close to fertility rates estimated in other sources. The 1977 fertility survey indicated a trend toward later age at marriage and a correlation of ideal family size with age. The ideal number of children was 4.2 for the total sample, 5 children for women aged 35-39 years, 4.5 for those aged 30-34, 3.9 for those 25-29, and 3.5 for those aged 20-24. 55% of women in union stated they wanted no more children. 46% of women exposed to risk of pregnancy used a modern method of contraception; the proportion varied from 40% of those with 1 child to 56% with 4 children. The fertility decline, reduced ideal family size, and use of modern contraception were closely associated with education, urbanization, and female labor force participation. Induced abortion may also contribute to the fertility decline but accurate data are lacking. High and low projections through the year 2001 based on the survey findings call for total fertility rates of 3.16 or 2.28 respectively in 2001, compared to the 4.39 observed in the survey.