Predictions of cancer incidence in Wielkopolska in 2018

Aim of the study: The cancer incidence in Wielkopolska in 2008 was one of the highest in the country and was higher than in Poland by 21% in men and by 14% in women. We can quantify the fu ture burden of cancer from two different perspectives: the number of new cancer cases due to population change and new cases due to risk change. Making pre dictions of number of new cancer cas es in Wielko polska in 2018. Material and methods: These projections of number of cancer cases, age specif ic rates and age-standardized rates for 2018 (all cancers and the most fre quent cancers for men and women) has been based on the historical trends of cancer incidence in Wielkopolska in 1999-2008 and demographical progno sis of Central Statistical Office using the method of Hakulinen and Dyba. Results: There will be over 8000 new can cer cases in men in Wielkopolska in 2018 and over 7000 in women. Compare to the period 2004-2008 the number of can cer cases will increase by 45% for men and by nearly 30% for women. About 2/3 of the increase in Wielkopolska is pre dicted to be connected with demogra phy change, 1/3 with risk change. Conclusions: The predicted increase of number of cancer cases in Wielkopols ka in 2018 will be the result of: changes in the population (bigger impact of the older age groups), an influence of the risk factors (mainly smoking) and a partici pation in the screening programs.