Analysis of soybean production and import trends and its import factors in Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the factors affecting soybean imports in Indonesia and to know the trend and projection of Indonesian soybean production as well as the import in 2016-2020. The basic method used in this research is the description analysis method. The data used are secondary data in the form of time series data from 1979-2015. Methods of data analysis using simultaneous equations model with 2SLS (Two Stage Least Square) method and Trend analysis. The results showed that the factors affecting soybean imports in Indonesia are consumption and production. Consumption has positive effect while production is negatively affected. The percentage changed in soybean imports is greater than the percentage change in consumption and production of soybeans. Consumption is positively influenced by imports and production, while production is influenced positively by consumption and negative by imports. The production trend of soybean in 2016-2020 has a tendency to increase with a percentage of 11.18% per year. Production in 2016 is projected at 1.110.537 tons while in 2020 it will increase to 1,721,350 tons. The import trend in 2016-2020 has a tendency to increase with an average percentage of 4.13% per year. Import in 2016 is projected at 2.224.188 tons while in 2020 it will increase to 2.611.270 tons.