Nigeria’s Demographic Dividend? : Policy Note in Support of Nigeria’s ERGP 2017-2020

A demographic dividend is the potential economic benefit associated with a country’s demographic context. The key point underlying the demographic dividend is that population age structure-dependency ratio-is critically important - and even more so than population size. People are at the heart of the demographic dividend, and the extent to which countries reap these dividends varies and depends on policies. A slow or stagnating demographic transition poses considerable risks to countries. Nigeria is a pre-dividend country due to its high fertility, declining mortality, and skewed young age structure. Nigeria is a high-fertility country and modest accelerations in its fertility decline can lead to substantial changes in its projected age-structure. Economic simulation modeling suggests that a one child difference in Nigeria’s fertility rates by 2050 can lead to differences of 29 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Lower fertility will also result in lifting 53 million people out of poverty by 2050.