The AD 1755 Lisbon Earthquake-Tsunami: Seismic source modelling from the analysis of ESI-07 environmental data

Abstract This work presents a macroseismic analysis of the AD 1755 Lisbon Earthquake-Tsunami event by means of the combination of intensity data derived from the EMS-98 scale and the ESI-07 scale (Environmental damage). About 600 records of secondary earthquake environmental effects (EEEs) for the whole Spain have been used to define intensities, focused on the SW portion of the Iberian Peninsula. The Spanish data have been complemented with 308 EEEs records from Portugal. The analyses indicate maximum intensities of X EMS-ESI along the Atlantic margin of the Iberian Peninsula with 76 records of Tsunami environmental effects (TEEs). An important amplification (VIII – VII) occurred all along the Guadalquivir basin and the adjacent Betic front at epicentral distances of 300–700 km. In these zones 55 records of ground effects (ground cracks, Liquefactions and slope movements) are catalogued. In the rest of the territory of the Peninsula the most widespread effects were hydrogeological changes with 505 records in Spain and 196 in Portugal (total 701 records) covering all the intensity levels. Increase of flow discharges in springs and elevation of water level in wells was the common groundwater response to seismic shacking, especially in SW Iberia. In this zone water elevation in wells was between 5 and 3 m and persistent increases of discharges long-lasting (several days to two months). Persistent discharges on springs were linked in 143 cases to important SW-NE crustal faults (e.g., Alentejo-Plasencia Fault). From the Intensity distribution the historic seismic scenarios are explored by means of the development of empirical ShakeMaps. These consider the three classical seismic sources proposed for this earthquake: Gorringe Bank (G); Marques de Pombal Fault (M) and Atlantic delamination beneath the Gulf of Cadiz (C). However, individually these seismic sources are too small and unable to generate the resulting seismic scenario depicted by the intensity map developed in this work, with onshore seismic accelerations (PGA) up to 0.82 g. These acceleration values and the great amplification experienced throughout the Guadalquivir basin (0.34–0.52 g) are only possible considering a combination of the three seismic sources (GMC Source) probably related to shallow subduction or lithospheric delamination beneath SW Iberia and the Gulf of Cadiz. This will suggest an NNE-SSW offshore rupture length of 350–360 km with an overall rupture area of c. 84,500 km2 resulting in an event magnitude 8.6 Mw calculated from empirical relationships. The results demonstrate the efficacy of these kind of approaches for better identifying and modelling seismic sources for historical events.